The consequences of Governor Siminalayi Fubara failing to present the 2025 budget to the Rivers State House of Assembly within the 48-hour ultimatum issued on March 3, 2025.
Based on available information and the current political context in Rivers State, here’s an analysis of what could happen:
The Rivers State House of Assembly, led by Speaker Martin Amaewhule, issued the ultimatum during a plenary session on March 3, 2025, demanding that Governor Fubara present the 2025 Appropriation Bill. This follows a Supreme Court ruling that recognized the Amaewhule-led faction as the legitimate assembly and ordered Fubara to present the budget to them, amid a political crisis involving a split legislature— one faction loyal to Fubara and another to his predecessor, Nyesom Wike. Fubara had previously signed a N1.188 trillion 2025 budget into law on January 2, 2025, after presenting it to the Victor Oko-Jumbo-led faction, a move now contested due to the Supreme Court’s decision.
If Fubara fails to comply within the 48-hour window ( ending around midday on March 5, 2025, given the ultimatum was issued on March 3), several potential consequences could unfold:
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Legal and Financial Repercussions: The Supreme Court had already mandated that federal allocations to Rivers State be halted until the budget is presented to the Amaewhule-led assembly. Non-compliance could solidify this financial chokehold, preventing the state from accessing funds from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Consolidated Revenue Fund. This could paralyze state operations, delay projects, and affect salaries and services, as highlighted in the assembly’s resolution tying the ultimatum to the court’s order.
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Escalation of Political Tensions: The ongoing feud between Fubara and Wike’s loyalists could intensify. The Amaewhule-led lawmakers, emboldened by the Supreme Court ruling, might interpret non-compliance as defiance, further polarizing the state’s governance. This could deepen the legislative crisis, with both factions potentially continuing parallel operations, though the pro-Wike faction now holds legal legitimacy.
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Impeachment Threats: While not explicitly stated in most reports as an immediate consequence of this specific ultimatum, posts on X and some news sources have speculated that failure to present the budget could lead to impeachment moves by the assembly. The pro-Wike lawmakers previously attempted to impeach Fubara in 2023, and this could resurface as a political weapon. However, such a step might be restrained to avoid destabilizing the state further, especially after past interventions by President Bola Tinubu to broker peace.
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Judicial Challenges: Fubara could respond by seeking legal clarification or an injunction, as seen in previous budget disputes. For instance, in 2024, his administration appealed to the Supreme Court after the Appeal Court invalidated the 2024 budget. A similar strategy might delay enforcement of the ultimatum, though it risks prolonging the financial standoff.
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Public and Administrative Fallout: Fubara’s directive for Heads of Local Government Administration to take over councils (following the Supreme Court’s ruling against caretaker committees) has already been criticized by the assembly as illegal. Ignoring the budget ultimatum could erode his authority further, fuel public discontent, and complicate governance, especially if the assembly moves to nullify his January 2025 budget.
Fubara has previously downplayed demands from the pro-Wike faction, stating in July 2024 that he was already preparing the 2025 budget and dismissing their legitimacy. However, with the Supreme Court’s backing of the Amaewhule-led assembly, defiance now carries higher stakes. The assembly might not immediately escalate to drastic measures like impeachment, preferring to leverage the financial restrictions already in place, but the situation remains fluid given Rivers State’s volatile political climate.
In summary
If Fubara fails to present the 2025 budget within the 48-hour ultimatum, he risks sustained financial isolation, heightened political conflict, potential impeachment proceedings, and further legal battles, all of which could severely hamper governance in Rivers State. The exact outcome depends on his next move and the assembly’s response by March 5, 2025.
